AI Has Yet to Revolutionize Coding Productivity

A recent paper examines the influence of AI on programming, revealing that by late 2024, AI generated approximately 30% of open-source code contributions. Despite this significant statistic, coder productivity only increased by 2.4% compared to pre-AI levels, challenging the perception that AI has drastically transformed coding efficiency. The authors measure productivity as commits per user, which may underestimate AI’s actual impact since open-source development often involves part-time contributions. Traditional tasks such as planning and testing occupy most programmers’ time, limiting the direct effect of AI on coding. The reported modest productivity gain suggests that even with AI assistance, human programmers spend substantial time on tasks beyond immediate code writing. As AI coding tools evolve and improve, especially in planning and execution, productivity may increase significantly in the future, although current growth is limited.

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