Participants on the prediction market platform Kalshi show increasing confidence in Google’s Gemini AI model, with 57% projecting it will emerge as the leading AI text model by 2025. This marks an increase from 48.1% the previous day, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment. In contrast, OpenAI’s ChatGPT odds have dropped to 20%, while xAI’s Grok decreased to 15%. The outcome will be determined by the LM Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025, with a bet volume of $7.4 million highlighting rising interest in AI model forecasting. Google has enhanced Gemini with features like storybook mode and improved reasoning, which resonate with market participants. Meanwhile, OpenAI faces setbacks with ChatGPT-5, and xAI’s Grok has faced criticism for political bias. As competition in the AI landscape intensifies, regulatory challenges loom that could affect future developments. This situation underscores the evolving perceptions and expectations surrounding AI technology.
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