HSBC’s analysis highlights OpenAI’s staggering cash burn, with cloud computing costs skyrocketing to $792 billion by 2030 and potentially reaching $1.4 trillion by 2033. This includes massive contracts with Microsoft ($250 billion) and Amazon ($38 billion) that expand OpenAI’s compute capacity significantly. HSBC estimates a cumulative value of $1.8 trillion from cloud agreements, forecasting that OpenAI could garner about $129 billion from consumer AI and $386 billion from enterprise AI by 2030. Despite optimistic user growth projections—aiming for 3 billion users by 2030, with a shift from 5% to 10% paid subscriptions—HSBC warns of a $207 billion funding gap after considering expenses and potential revenue streams. The report suggests OpenAI may need to renegotiate data center commitments to maintain liquidity, especially in light of fluctuating investor confidence. Overall, HSBC remains bullish on AI’s long-term impact, viewing the anticipated shortfall as manageable in the broader context of economic productivity.
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