The author of “How Progress Ends” argues that while fears of AI-related job losses arise, optimists view AI as a productivity enhancer for both workers and the economy. Microsoft’s Satya Nadella envisions AI enabling users to set goals as the software learns and executes tasks. However, historical evidence reveals that despite advancements in technology, productivity growth in advanced economies has declined from 2% in the 1990s to 0.8% now. Scientific productivity has also stagnated, with researchers managing multiple projects yielding fewer breakthroughs. Successful innovation requires deep focus, as exemplified by Isaac Newton and Steve Jobs. AI, while improving efficiency—evidenced by reduced email tasks—has yet to foster significant breakthroughs. For AI to truly enhance productivity, institutions must prioritize originality and risk-taking, fostering deeper exploration instead of merely increasing output. The potential for an AI-driven productivity renaissance exists, contingent on embracing innovative thinking.
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