Unprecedented Unemployment Shift: AI Threatens to Leave White-Collar Knowledge Workers Jobless in the Next Economic Recovery

As businesses aim to maximize efficiency during recessions, the rise of generative AI is poised to disrupt traditional employment patterns. Historically, white-collar knowledge workers, such as engineers and scientists, have been less affected by economic downturns compared to routine occupations. However, JPMorgan economist Murat Tasci warns that the impending recession could lead to significant job displacement for non-routine cognitive roles due to accelerated AI adoption. For the first time, these workers now represent a higher share of unemployed individuals, signaling a potential risk to the workforce. This shift could result in a grim labor market, as these roles constitute nearly 45% of total employment today. While some experts believe in a division of labor between humans and AI, suggesting job loss predictions may be exaggerated, the reality for non-routine cognitive workers appears increasingly concerning. The impact of AI could reshape the landscape of employment recovery in unprecedented ways.

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