The study of interstate conflict faces critical limitations, often caught between theoretical elegance and historical descriptions that only explain wars in retrospect. To effectively prevent war, we must advance analytical tools and govern their use responsibly. Traditional insights show that factors like geography, power dynamics, and trade influence conflict, yet existing models often fall short in explaining the complexities of war. Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance these analytical capabilities by uncovering hidden patterns and interactions within the multifaceted nature of conflicts. However, the utilization of AI brings risks associated with transparency and accountability. To ensure effective use, AI tools must be explainable, auditable, and integrated within frameworks that prioritize human judgment. Establishing governance is vital to prevent overreliance on AI, ensuring it supports, rather than replaces, diplomatic processes. The goal is not just accurate predictions but developing a sophisticated understanding that fosters early intervention and promotes global peace, making the integration of AI a public good.
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