HSBC’s financial analysis reveals that OpenAI faces a daunting $207 billion shortfall by 2030 to fund its expansive plans, specifically to cover data center leases that balloon to $792 billion. Although projections estimate OpenAI’s free cash flow at about $282 billion, additional expected revenue from Nvidia, AMD sales, unused debt, and available cash collectively fall short. Currently, OpenAI boasts 800 million users, with only 5% converted to paid subscriptions. HSBC predicts this could only double to 10% by 2030, necessitating major convincing to monetize its projected 3 billion users. Recent high-stakes deals with Microsoft and Amazon, totaling $288 billion, have increased infrastructure costs substantially, with annual data center rentals at $620 billion. If revenues lag, OpenAI may need to reconsider its capacity commitments and cut back on data center leases to avoid financial distress. The urgency for monetizing its user base is critical for OpenAI’s sustained growth and stability.
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