In a recent exclusive update, I shared critical insights into OpenAI’s financial relationship with Microsoft, focusing on inference costs and revenue sharing. OpenAI currently pays Microsoft 20% of its revenue as part of an ongoing agreement, with total inference costs reaching $12.43 billion from CY2024 to Q3 CY2025. The documents I’ve reviewed indicate OpenAI’s inference expenses far exceed previously reported figures—around $5.02 billion in just the first half of CY2025—indicating that costs are nearly triple those estimates. OpenAI’s revenues appear misaligned with expectations, suggesting revenues in H1 CY2025 could be around $2.273 billion, significantly lower than some reports claim. These discrepancies raise questions regarding the sustainability of OpenAI’s operational model and may signal the need for price adjustments across the generative AI sector. For further detailed analysis, subscribe to my premium newsletter and listen to my podcast, Better Offline, discussing these vital developments.
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