The projection indicates that generative AI will significantly boost productivity and GDP, contributing 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. Notably, 40% of current GDP could be influenced by generative AI, mainly impacting higher-earning roles, where approximately 50% of tasks are automatable. The initial productivity growth surge will peak in the early 2030s, attributing a 0.2 pp annual contribution in 2032, followed by a gradual decline. Despite caution in these estimates due to limited data, the analysis highlights that 42% of jobs are at risk of automation, particularly in occupations like office administration and business operations. The adoption speed is akin to that of past technologies, suggesting substantial economic transformation as generative AI becomes more embedded. Overall, while AI will permanently enhance economic output, future advancements will refine these projections significantly.
Source link
