During the 2022-2023 measles outbreak in Columbus, Ohio, public health officials initially estimated community vaccination coverage at 80% to 90%, but these figures were based on incomplete data. To improve the accuracy of vaccination estimates, researchers created VaxEstim, a tool that utilizes early outbreak data, such as the onset and spread of cases, to assess vaccination rates even when complete health records are unavailable. A study published in Lancet Regional Health-Americas revealed that VaxEstim predicted only 53% of the exposed population had received the two required doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. Following a thorough investigation, detailed records from a pediatric network showed that only 42.4% of Somali children under 15 had received both doses by the outbreak’s onset. This validation demonstrates VaxEstim’s effectiveness in providing timely insights into vaccination gaps, essential for controlling infectious disease outbreaks.
